After the Zombies
My sons are obsessed with the zombie apocalypse. I understand that the Zombie Apocalypse is more of a metaphor of the idea of all of the trappings of modern civilization failing and having to survive in a world where everything that we have become accustomed to is gone. No more grocery stores, no electricity, having to hunt and gather your own food. It is assumed that there would soon be fewer people to compete with for the vastly reduced available resources. I remember on my last trip that I had to take for work my youngest son asked me if the zombies come while I am away what should they do. I had no answer for that, as a matter of fact I was kind of at a loss. If everything fell apart and I was unable to get home as easily as I once was what would I do?
That opened a lot of questions as to how I would get back to SLC from Washington DC If I could not fly or drive. I guess I would look for a bicycle. I would avoid as many heavily populated areas as possible. Getting to Salt Lake City from Washington DC would be difficult and it would take quite a while. I would imagine that I would have to stick to as many roads that would keep me away from major population centers as possible. I believe that it would be best to move through the southern states this time of year. I wonder how that would be different if instead of Zombies it was a set of circumstances like The Stand by Stephen King. Living in a world that has been overwhelmed by a virus or similar affliction. A virus that kills the vast majority of the population very quickly.
1. What if that virus was persistent? It would not go away, ever. Every new generation would hope that their offspring would survive the virus. Some would and some would not.
2. How long could the people that were left be able to carry on before substantial changes to the way that they live everyday life would be forced upon us.
3. How long would the food that we have available to us runs out and we either have to produce more or find another way to procure it.
4. Would we be able to adjust quickly enough to survive?
5. Would the people that are left fall into chaos or would they organize to a new society?
6. What would that society look like?
7. What would be the result of Chaos?
These to me are interesting questions.
Lets look at the first question. What if the virus was persistent? The people that were left after the initial die off would eventually have to start to try to repopulate. I believe it would be hard enough to find a person of the opposite sex. If you look at just the numbers, an event that catastrophic would probably kill all but 5% of the general population. Let us explore the distribution of individuals. The population of the United States is 307 million. When you look at the remaining population of 15.35 million it actually looks like a lot. Again I want to explore the distribution of the population.
State Percent of US population Population before Event 100% Population After Event A 5% Population After Event B .001% Population After Event C .0001%
Alabama, AL 0.0157 4,819,900 240,995 4,820 482
Alaska, AK 0.0022 675,400 33,770 675 68
Arizona, AZ 0.0186 5,710,200 285,510 5,710 571
Arkansas, AR 0.0095 2,916,500 145,825 2,917 292
California, CA 0.1211 37,177,700 1,858,885 37,178 3,718
Colorado, CO 0.0155 4,758,500 237,925 4,759 476
Connecticut, CT 0.012 3,684,000 184,200 3,684 368
Delaware, DE 0.0028 859,600 42,980 860 86
Florida, FL 0.0576 17,683,200 884,160 17,683 1,768
Georgia, GA 0.0294 9,025,800 451,290 9,026 903
Hawaii, HI 0.0043 1,320,100 66,005 1,320 132
Idaho, ID 0.0046 1,412,200 70,610 1,412 141
Illinois, IL 0.0438 13,446,600 672,330 13,447 1,345
Indiana, IN 0.0215 6,600,500 330,025 6,601 660
Iowa, IA 0.0103 3,162,100 158,105 3,162 316
Kansas, KS 0.0095 2,916,500 145,825 2,917 292
Kentucky, KY 0.0143 4,390,100 219,505 4,390 439
Louisiana, LA 0.0157 4,819,900 240,995 4,820 482
Maine, ME 0.0045 1,381,500 69,075 1,382 138
Maryland, MD 0.0189 5,802,300 290,115 5,802 580
Massachusetts, MA 0.0224 6,876,800 343,840 6,877 688
Michigan, MI 0.0351 10,775,700 538,785 10,776 1,078
Minnesota, MN 0.0175 5,372,500 268,625 5,373 537
Mississippi, MS 0.01 3,070,000 153,500 3,070 307
Missouri, MO 0.0198 6,078,600 303,930 6,079 608
Montana, MT 0.0032 982,400 49,120 982 98
Nebraska, NE 0.006 1,842,000 92,100 1,842 184
Nevada, NV 0.0074 2,271,800 113,590 2,272 227
New Hampshire, NH 0.0044 1,350,800 67,540 1,351 135
New Jersey, NJ 0.0298 9,148,600 457,430 9,149 915
New Mexico, NM 0.0064 1,964,800 98,240 1,965 196
New York, NY 0.0668 20,507,600 1,025,380 20,508 2,051
North Carolina, NC 0.0287 8,810,900 440,545 8,811 881
North Dakota, ND 0.0022 675,400 33,770 675 68
Ohio, OH 0.0399 12,249,300 612,465 12,249 1,225
Oklahoma, OK 0.0121 3,714,700 185,735 3,715 371
Oregon, OR 0.0122 3,745,400 187,270 3,745 375
Pennsylvania, PA 0.0431 13,231,700 661,585 13,232 1,323
Rhode Island, RI 0.0037 1,135,900 56,795 1,136 114
South Carolina, SC 0.0143 4,390,100 219,505 4,390 439
South Dakota, SD 0.0027 828,900 41,445 829 83
Tennessee, TN 0.0202 6,201,400 310,070 6,201 620
Texas, TX 0.0749 22,994,300 1,149,715 22,994 2,299
Utah, UT 0.008 2,456,000 122,800 2,456 246
Vermont, VT 0.0022 675,400 33,770 675 68
Virginia, VA 0.0252 7,736,400 386,820 7,736 774
Washington, WA 0.021 6,447,000 322,350 6,447 645
West Virginia, WV 0.0063 1,934,100 96,705 1,934 193
Wisconsin, WI 0.019 5,833,000 291,650 5,833 583
Wyoming, WY 0.0017 521,900 26,095 522 52
Washington DC 0.002 614,000 30,700 614 61
Total 1 307,000,000 15,350,000 307,000 30,700
I started to experiment with the numbers. 5% of the population remaining actually gave a large number of individuals that would be left in the pool so here are some of the simple iterations I went through. I was looking for a number that would cause hardship to the individual that were left. I decided that event B and Event C were the most likely to cause problems for the individuals that were left. I believe that my initial assumption of difficulty in even finding an individual alive is not generally supported. I am going to further break this down by looking directly at my state, Utah.
County Percent of Population Population After Event B .001% Population After Event C .0001%
Beaver County 0.0027 7 1
Box Elder County 0.0191 47 5
Cache County 0.0409 100 10
Carbon County 0.0091 22 2
Daggett County 0.0004 1 0
Davis County 0.0107 26 3
Duchesne County 0.0064 16 2
Emery County 0.0049 12 1
Garfield County 0.0021 5 1
Grand County 0.0038 9 1
Iron County 0.0151 37 4
Juab County 0.0037 9 1
Kane County 0.0027 7 1
Millard County 0.0056 14 1
Morgan County 0.0032 8 1
Piute County 0.0006 1 0
Rich County 0.0009 2 0
Salt Lake County 0.4023 988 99
San Juan County 0.0065 16 2
Sanpete County 0.0102 25 3
Sevier County 0.0084 21 2
Summit County 0.0133 33 3
Tooele County 0.0182 45 4
Uintah County 0.0113 28 3
Utah County 0.165 405 41
Wasatch County 0.0068 17 2
Washington County 0.0405 99 10
Wayne County 0.0011 3 0
Weber County 0.088 216 22
These numbers support my initial problem of actually being able to find another person. The smaller or the more rural the area the more difficult it would be to find others. I believe that the example of the Event in the Stand was more indicative of an extinction level event, that would leave only sporadic living individuals dispersed throughout the population. The number and population would be lower than the example given in Event C. Given that information and the population dispersal, assuming that resources were not severely depleted by a drawn out die off, there should be a number of modern conveniences available for the remaining people to use. Those resources would allow the individuals to either find new ways of providing for themselves or sustain the small population indefinitely. If the resources were generally depleted by the expiring population then the remaining population would have to work together to consolidate resources quickly, in this scenario much quicker than most of the others primarily because the others would have a need for security first and foremost. The remaining population would move to a temperate climate that would be easier to survive in, nothing too hot or too cold. There are a number of possibilities that would suffice.
Let us answer some of the questions that we have asked if we can.
1. What if that virus was persistent? It would not go away, ever. Every new generation would hope that their offspring would survive the virus. Some would and some would not.
It is necessary to explore a persistent and a non persistent cause for the event. A persistent cause would revisit the population when there was an adjustment to the population. There would be a need before too long for the population to begin reproducing. As new children were born the persistent nature might take a number of the newborn children. Some of the newborn children would survive. I would hope that the offspring would carry the immunity to the virus from the genetic material from their parents. Not knowing for sure you would have to plan for either.
2. How long could the people that were left be able to carry on before substantial changes to the way that they live everyday life would be forced upon them.
It would not take long for substantial changes to be forced on the surviving population. As a survivor you would need to plan to be living without modern conveniences for at least a while. That would lead to moving to a climate that is easier to survive in. gathering the remaining resources in your area would be very important. The research that I have done has suggested that depending on where you live and what kind of mechanism provides power for your area, the electrical grid could fail in as little as 3 days. You would need to be ready to move and go somewhere that it would be easier to survive out doors.
Another example of a possible scenario is the one in the popular show The Walking Dead. This Event would be much different than a die out that would clear the landscape of obstacles, I will call that Event D. Event D would not initially effect the population of the areas in question. It would make life for the unaffected individuals a lot more interesting than the lives of people trying to survive Events A-C. The primary difficulty being that in order to be a survivor you would need to institute security measures to avoid contamination, and subsequently adding yourself to the zombie population. The population and distribution of the surviving individuals would not be much different be much different than the population and distribution in Event C. Eventually the Zombies in Event D would begin to die out providing that they no longer have the capability to find sustenance. The initial graph of the population change would look something like this.
You can see that I have shown the Zombie takeover in a very linear form. It may not look linear in the beginning it could be exponential. That would increase the rate of initial die offs as well. I predict at about day 17 the Zombies will equal the approximate number of non zombie population. This graph shows a slowdown in infection rate at approximately day 26. It also shows a critical mass of the Zombie population at day 30 and then the major die off starts. I have predicted that by day 46 the population of Zombies will return to effective Zero. Barring the introduction at this time of a new population of uninfected the outbreak should be over.
That opened a lot of questions as to how I would get back to SLC from Washington DC If I could not fly or drive. I guess I would look for a bicycle. I would avoid as many heavily populated areas as possible. Getting to Salt Lake City from Washington DC would be difficult and it would take quite a while. I would imagine that I would have to stick to as many roads that would keep me away from major population centers as possible. I believe that it would be best to move through the southern states this time of year. I wonder how that would be different if instead of Zombies it was a set of circumstances like The Stand by Stephen King. Living in a world that has been overwhelmed by a virus or similar affliction. A virus that kills the vast majority of the population very quickly.
1. What if that virus was persistent? It would not go away, ever. Every new generation would hope that their offspring would survive the virus. Some would and some would not.
2. How long could the people that were left be able to carry on before substantial changes to the way that they live everyday life would be forced upon us.
3. How long would the food that we have available to us runs out and we either have to produce more or find another way to procure it.
4. Would we be able to adjust quickly enough to survive?
5. Would the people that are left fall into chaos or would they organize to a new society?
6. What would that society look like?
7. What would be the result of Chaos?
These to me are interesting questions.
Lets look at the first question. What if the virus was persistent? The people that were left after the initial die off would eventually have to start to try to repopulate. I believe it would be hard enough to find a person of the opposite sex. If you look at just the numbers, an event that catastrophic would probably kill all but 5% of the general population. Let us explore the distribution of individuals. The population of the United States is 307 million. When you look at the remaining population of 15.35 million it actually looks like a lot. Again I want to explore the distribution of the population.
State Percent of US population Population before Event 100% Population After Event A 5% Population After Event B .001% Population After Event C .0001%
Alabama, AL 0.0157 4,819,900 240,995 4,820 482
Alaska, AK 0.0022 675,400 33,770 675 68
Arizona, AZ 0.0186 5,710,200 285,510 5,710 571
Arkansas, AR 0.0095 2,916,500 145,825 2,917 292
California, CA 0.1211 37,177,700 1,858,885 37,178 3,718
Colorado, CO 0.0155 4,758,500 237,925 4,759 476
Connecticut, CT 0.012 3,684,000 184,200 3,684 368
Delaware, DE 0.0028 859,600 42,980 860 86
Florida, FL 0.0576 17,683,200 884,160 17,683 1,768
Georgia, GA 0.0294 9,025,800 451,290 9,026 903
Hawaii, HI 0.0043 1,320,100 66,005 1,320 132
Idaho, ID 0.0046 1,412,200 70,610 1,412 141
Illinois, IL 0.0438 13,446,600 672,330 13,447 1,345
Indiana, IN 0.0215 6,600,500 330,025 6,601 660
Iowa, IA 0.0103 3,162,100 158,105 3,162 316
Kansas, KS 0.0095 2,916,500 145,825 2,917 292
Kentucky, KY 0.0143 4,390,100 219,505 4,390 439
Louisiana, LA 0.0157 4,819,900 240,995 4,820 482
Maine, ME 0.0045 1,381,500 69,075 1,382 138
Maryland, MD 0.0189 5,802,300 290,115 5,802 580
Massachusetts, MA 0.0224 6,876,800 343,840 6,877 688
Michigan, MI 0.0351 10,775,700 538,785 10,776 1,078
Minnesota, MN 0.0175 5,372,500 268,625 5,373 537
Mississippi, MS 0.01 3,070,000 153,500 3,070 307
Missouri, MO 0.0198 6,078,600 303,930 6,079 608
Montana, MT 0.0032 982,400 49,120 982 98
Nebraska, NE 0.006 1,842,000 92,100 1,842 184
Nevada, NV 0.0074 2,271,800 113,590 2,272 227
New Hampshire, NH 0.0044 1,350,800 67,540 1,351 135
New Jersey, NJ 0.0298 9,148,600 457,430 9,149 915
New Mexico, NM 0.0064 1,964,800 98,240 1,965 196
New York, NY 0.0668 20,507,600 1,025,380 20,508 2,051
North Carolina, NC 0.0287 8,810,900 440,545 8,811 881
North Dakota, ND 0.0022 675,400 33,770 675 68
Ohio, OH 0.0399 12,249,300 612,465 12,249 1,225
Oklahoma, OK 0.0121 3,714,700 185,735 3,715 371
Oregon, OR 0.0122 3,745,400 187,270 3,745 375
Pennsylvania, PA 0.0431 13,231,700 661,585 13,232 1,323
Rhode Island, RI 0.0037 1,135,900 56,795 1,136 114
South Carolina, SC 0.0143 4,390,100 219,505 4,390 439
South Dakota, SD 0.0027 828,900 41,445 829 83
Tennessee, TN 0.0202 6,201,400 310,070 6,201 620
Texas, TX 0.0749 22,994,300 1,149,715 22,994 2,299
Utah, UT 0.008 2,456,000 122,800 2,456 246
Vermont, VT 0.0022 675,400 33,770 675 68
Virginia, VA 0.0252 7,736,400 386,820 7,736 774
Washington, WA 0.021 6,447,000 322,350 6,447 645
West Virginia, WV 0.0063 1,934,100 96,705 1,934 193
Wisconsin, WI 0.019 5,833,000 291,650 5,833 583
Wyoming, WY 0.0017 521,900 26,095 522 52
Washington DC 0.002 614,000 30,700 614 61
Total 1 307,000,000 15,350,000 307,000 30,700
I started to experiment with the numbers. 5% of the population remaining actually gave a large number of individuals that would be left in the pool so here are some of the simple iterations I went through. I was looking for a number that would cause hardship to the individual that were left. I decided that event B and Event C were the most likely to cause problems for the individuals that were left. I believe that my initial assumption of difficulty in even finding an individual alive is not generally supported. I am going to further break this down by looking directly at my state, Utah.
County Percent of Population Population After Event B .001% Population After Event C .0001%
Beaver County 0.0027 7 1
Box Elder County 0.0191 47 5
Cache County 0.0409 100 10
Carbon County 0.0091 22 2
Daggett County 0.0004 1 0
Davis County 0.0107 26 3
Duchesne County 0.0064 16 2
Emery County 0.0049 12 1
Garfield County 0.0021 5 1
Grand County 0.0038 9 1
Iron County 0.0151 37 4
Juab County 0.0037 9 1
Kane County 0.0027 7 1
Millard County 0.0056 14 1
Morgan County 0.0032 8 1
Piute County 0.0006 1 0
Rich County 0.0009 2 0
Salt Lake County 0.4023 988 99
San Juan County 0.0065 16 2
Sanpete County 0.0102 25 3
Sevier County 0.0084 21 2
Summit County 0.0133 33 3
Tooele County 0.0182 45 4
Uintah County 0.0113 28 3
Utah County 0.165 405 41
Wasatch County 0.0068 17 2
Washington County 0.0405 99 10
Wayne County 0.0011 3 0
Weber County 0.088 216 22
These numbers support my initial problem of actually being able to find another person. The smaller or the more rural the area the more difficult it would be to find others. I believe that the example of the Event in the Stand was more indicative of an extinction level event, that would leave only sporadic living individuals dispersed throughout the population. The number and population would be lower than the example given in Event C. Given that information and the population dispersal, assuming that resources were not severely depleted by a drawn out die off, there should be a number of modern conveniences available for the remaining people to use. Those resources would allow the individuals to either find new ways of providing for themselves or sustain the small population indefinitely. If the resources were generally depleted by the expiring population then the remaining population would have to work together to consolidate resources quickly, in this scenario much quicker than most of the others primarily because the others would have a need for security first and foremost. The remaining population would move to a temperate climate that would be easier to survive in, nothing too hot or too cold. There are a number of possibilities that would suffice.
Let us answer some of the questions that we have asked if we can.
1. What if that virus was persistent? It would not go away, ever. Every new generation would hope that their offspring would survive the virus. Some would and some would not.
It is necessary to explore a persistent and a non persistent cause for the event. A persistent cause would revisit the population when there was an adjustment to the population. There would be a need before too long for the population to begin reproducing. As new children were born the persistent nature might take a number of the newborn children. Some of the newborn children would survive. I would hope that the offspring would carry the immunity to the virus from the genetic material from their parents. Not knowing for sure you would have to plan for either.
2. How long could the people that were left be able to carry on before substantial changes to the way that they live everyday life would be forced upon them.
It would not take long for substantial changes to be forced on the surviving population. As a survivor you would need to plan to be living without modern conveniences for at least a while. That would lead to moving to a climate that is easier to survive in. gathering the remaining resources in your area would be very important. The research that I have done has suggested that depending on where you live and what kind of mechanism provides power for your area, the electrical grid could fail in as little as 3 days. You would need to be ready to move and go somewhere that it would be easier to survive out doors.
Another example of a possible scenario is the one in the popular show The Walking Dead. This Event would be much different than a die out that would clear the landscape of obstacles, I will call that Event D. Event D would not initially effect the population of the areas in question. It would make life for the unaffected individuals a lot more interesting than the lives of people trying to survive Events A-C. The primary difficulty being that in order to be a survivor you would need to institute security measures to avoid contamination, and subsequently adding yourself to the zombie population. The population and distribution of the surviving individuals would not be much different be much different than the population and distribution in Event C. Eventually the Zombies in Event D would begin to die out providing that they no longer have the capability to find sustenance. The initial graph of the population change would look something like this.
You can see that I have shown the Zombie takeover in a very linear form. It may not look linear in the beginning it could be exponential. That would increase the rate of initial die offs as well. I predict at about day 17 the Zombies will equal the approximate number of non zombie population. This graph shows a slowdown in infection rate at approximately day 26. It also shows a critical mass of the Zombie population at day 30 and then the major die off starts. I have predicted that by day 46 the population of Zombies will return to effective Zero. Barring the introduction at this time of a new population of uninfected the outbreak should be over.
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